Modeling of Climate Scenarios and Opportunities For Hydrometeorological Disasters in The Ogan Watersheds of South Sumatra

Abstract

The occurance of flood disaster on Ogan watersheds has been recorded for
last 10 years in village at upstream and downstream, that is Kepayang
Village, Tanabang Ulu Village and Utak Kembahang Village ( according to
BNPB data ) with damage for 150 houses flooded and 200 victims
displaced. This research uses modelling of rainfall history data 1975 – 2004
and projections of climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 so it can estimate
the increase of river water rise. The result of analysis of rainfall history per
three months in 1975 – 1989 showed the highest rainfall intensity occurred
in March, April and May with 421.50 mm/month and occurred in the same
month in the period 1990 - 2004 amounting to 438.89 mm / month. The five
day rainfall of three months period show the projected value is higher than
history, for the example September, October and November, from 220.61
mm/month to 245.12 mm/month. This illustrates that in the following year
the probability of flooding will increase high, so that it requires for best
handling in design of hydraulic.