Influence of Climate Change in Increasing River Water Surface and The Potentials of Hydrometeorological Disasters in The Enim River Flow Area of South Sumatera

Abstract

The flood disaster in the Enim River flow occurred in 2016, referring to the
BNPB data inundating the villages of Keban Agung, Lingga Village, and Tegal
Rejo Village, causing 562 houses to drown. Drought in several areas of Muara
Enim Regency caused farmers to got crop failures. This research uses the history
of the period 1974-2005 and the projections of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 period 1990-
2045 as a parameter of river level rise. The highest rainfall rates of 1974-1989
occurring in March, April, May (MAM) 612.84 mm / month experienced a 626.36
mm / month increase in output, so the probability of flooding was higher. On the
contrary, in June July August (JJA) 2019-2035, the decline in rainfall caused a
higher possibility of drought. The highest five-day rainfall projection occurs in the
DJF and MAM months in the period 2019-2035 increasing monthly rainfall and
potential flooding. On the contrary, the five-day projection for the JJA and SON
months in the 2019-2035 period has declined and has the potential for drought.
This information is expected to be used by policy makers in water resources
management in the Enim River