Analysis of Climate Change on Chances of Hydrometeorological Disaster Events in The Komering Sub-Watershed South Sumatera

Abstract

The opportunity for hydrometeorological disasters in the form of floods can be
obtained from looking at climate change scenarios. In the Komering subwatersheds
referring to the BNPB DIBI in 2016 resulted in 16,535 victims
affected and evacuated. This study uses historical rainfall data from 1975-2004
and projections for 2020-2045 as the main factors to predict the amount of river
water rising. The results of the analysis of rainfall history data for the three
months period 1975-1989 resulted in the highest intensity of rainfall occurring in
March, April, May (MAM) 619.45 mm / month, but in the rainfall projection data
for 2020-2034 the increase in intensity only occurred in September, October,
november (SON) 521.79 mm / month. Next is the three-month period five-day
rainfall ratio in the historical data of 1975-1989 and the projection data of 2020-
2034 showing that all projected rainfall values increase against the value of
historical rainfall, especially in the historical data of December, January, February
(DJF) 383.34 mm/month and the projection data in the same month is 629.24 mm
/ month. Therefore, this study can be the first step in analyzing the potential of
hydrometeorological disaster in the Komering Sub-watershed.