THE SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS IN LEMATANG WATERSHED OF SOUTH SUMATERA

Abstract

Flood disaster on Lematang watersheds according to BNPB Indonesia disaster
information data in 2016 in Lahat District, caused 12 houses were severely
damaged as well as 1,218 victims affected and evacuated. This study uses rainfall
data and landsat 8 OLI/TIRS imagery. The results of the data analysis history of
rainfall (1974-2005) and the projection of the RCP 4.5 and also 8.5 (2020-2050)
was divided into two time periods with a span of 15 years. Historical analysis
explains the highest peak of rainfall occurred in March, April, May (MAM) and
September, October, November (SON), correlation with rainfall projections
showed that episodes of chance of flooding have a shift in the original time in one
period within three months period to six months. Modeling of river morphology
showed changes in river flow which implicates to land use with paying attention
to frequency level of rain on the potential disaster hazards caused. This research
expected could be the first step in identifying potential hazards of
hydrometeorological disaster in Lematang watersheds.