Modeling of Climate Change on Opportunities of Hydrometeorological Disaster in Batanghari Leko Flow Area, South Sumatra

Abstract

The Indonesian Disaster Index Data of the National Disaster Management Agency
shows that in 2016, floods in the Batanghari Leko River Area have recorded
subemerged 4,548 houses and 18,910 people affected and displaced. To find out
the opportunities for future flooding, an analysis of historical rainfall and
projections is carried out. The data used is the calculation of rainfall historical
data period 1975-2005 and future projections for the period 2020-2045 with
global climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The results of analysis using historical
rainfall data for three months period (1975-1989) shows the highest intensity in
September, October and November (SON) is 477.66 mm / month, which increases
in the period 2020-2034 to 543.76 mm / month with the scenario RCP 4.5. This
study will also be carried out by modeling land cover and changes in river flow to
further improve the accuracy of opportunities for future hydrometeorological
disasters